GonzoGeek Picks The 2009 Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

With the Oscars looming on Sunday, February 22, GonzoGeek will be previewing this year’s awards with a look at five major categories…with some help from a Nintendo 64 game.

Today: Best Supporting Actress

Nominees (Odds)
Amy Adams, “Doubt” (12/1)

Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Christina Barcelona” (1/2)

Viola Davis, “Doubt” (3/1)

Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (15/1)

Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler” (5/1)

The odds aren’t too far apart for any one nominee in this race (compared to some others). Conventional wisdom suggests that the pair of “Doubt” nominees – Amy Adams as a naive young nun caught in the middle of church politics and Viola Davis as the mother of a family victimized by it – will cancel each other out. Taraji P. Henson, the long-shot of the category, appeared in more of “Button” (as the protagonist’s adoptive mother) than Davis did of “Doubt,” but her presence is severely undercut by the number of other characters and influences in the film’s plot – she’s got a nomination for being part of an ensemble supporting cast. Penelope Cruz is the front-runner for her comedic and sexy turn in a Woody Allen pick, but Marisa Tomei is a contender for her second trophy as a past-her-prime stripper and the object of Mickey Rourke’s affection.

Bruce

Amy Adams is an Oscar favorite who proved herself last year with “Enchanted.” She didn’t get the win, but she did get the rub. This year she’ll get a win because the Academy won’t let a movie like “Doubt” go by without someone winning. It’s too topical. It won’t be Streep and it won’t be Hoffman so who does that leave? One of America’s red-haired sweethearts in a serious movie. Win.

Chris

Penelope Cruz Because she’s smokin!

John

Marisa Tomei – Why not?

Matt

Marisa Tomei – There was no bolder performance. Besides all the brazen, trashy nudity the role demanded, she spent a few scenes with no makeup on purpose. As good as Mickey Rourke was as the star of the movie, it’s Tomei’s performance as his counterpart that keeps the film grounded amongst the occasional ridiculousness of the subject matter.

Stephe

Well, I can tell you who it won’t be. Marisa Tomei. If they could, the academy would go back in time and take away the Oscar that she has. They’re not about to just give her another one.

Taraji Henson and Viola Davis will split the black vote, opening the door for… Sarah Palin….Hahahahah….just kidding.

No, it’ll come down to Penelope Cruz and Amy Adams and they’ll have tank tops, a jello pit, and ten minutes to decide a winner. That’s an award show, my friend. Money in the bank.

For the record, though, I’m going with the Mexican chick (ed. note: Penelope Cruz, who is, um, Spanish). Oye como va, mother fucker!

Wrestlemania 2000

Adams = Steve Blackman: Pious, black-clad, conflicted internally but unable to be expressive.

Cruz = Edge: Most charismatic of the group with the longest track record of credible success

Davis = Mark Henry: Very noticeable despite brief and emotionally sparse appearance.

Tomei = Val Venis: Talent largely overlooked because of career placement; prominent sex-industry role.

Tomei makes her case early, fighting off double-teams from Cruz and Adams to bloody the former. Cruz never recovers from it despite several minutes of bedlam. Tomei eliminates her at 10:22 after a big splash. Seconds later at 10:36, Adams does away with her bigger Doubt co-star Davis with a simple roll-up. Adams quickly goes after Tomei, combating several standing knee-locks with pair of hard dropkicks and a flying knee drop. At the brink of defeat, Marisa Tomei pulls out a jumping lariat and a single-leg Boston crab to force the submission at 14:15.

Wrestlemania 2000’s selections are made via a four-man elimination match simulation on the Nintendo 64 title. The nominee with the longest odds** does not get represented in the match. For more information on how Wrestlemania 2000 picks the winners, click here. The only change for 2009 involves assigning each nominee a wrestler according to their likelihood of winning per Vegas odds.

Odds are provided by /Film. It bears noting that /Film is by no means a professional oddsmaker, but the figures presented aren’t intended for actual betting.