GonzoGeek Picks The 2009 Oscars: Best Actress

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With the Oscars looming on Sunday, February 22, GonzoGeek will be previewing this year’s awards with a look at five major categories…with some help from a Nintendo 64 game.

Monday: Best Supporting Actress
Tuesday: Best Supporting Actor
Today: Best Actress

Nominees (Odds)
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married” – 4/1

Anne Hathaway

Angelina Jolie, “Changeling” – 25/1

Angelina Jolie

Melissa Leo, “Frozen River” – 35/1

Melissa Leo

Meryl Streep, “Doubt” – 5/2

Meryl Streep

Kate Winslet, “The Reader” – 1/2

Kate Winslet

If Supporting Actress is the most wide-open category, Best Leading Actress might be the tightest contest. Angelina Jolie as a mother fighting against the system to find her son and Melissa Leo as a mother deserted by her husband and turning to desperate measures to sustain the family (no, it’s not Weeds) carry the long odds here and haven’t been seriously considered by most experts. The nod is recognition enough. The competition begins with Anne Hathaway’s dramatic turn as a rehabbed junkie returning to her family in time to tear them apart again. Hathaway is a dark horse who has received positive feedback regarding her chances. She could steap the trophy from the two deadlocked favorites. Meryl Streep’s deceitful, self-interested nun and Kate Winslet’s illiterate Nazi prison guard desperate for human attention are the behemoths. Winslet has yet to win an Oscar despite five previous nominations. Streep, meanwhile, has the most nods of any actress with 16, with her most recent win coming in 1983. Both turned in strong performances and would be worthy choices, but only one can go home with a statue.

Bruce

Kate Winslet – This is quite simply a changing of the guard award. For years, Meryl Streep has been Oscar’s go to girl for nominations. All she had to do was act a little and she got a nomination. This year, that torch will be passed to Kate Winslet. She’s younger. She’s hotter. She’s blonder. She’s Britisher. In short, she’s a knockout who can act. After multiple nominations, Winslet takes it home this year and becomes Oscar’s go-to nomination chick for the next 10-20 years. Sorry Meryl.

Chris

Kate Winslet – Another close race; this one between Winslet and Streep. I think the members of the Academy would like to see Winslet get an Oscar after five previous nominations and that this will give her the edge. That being said, it’s always tough to bet against Meryl Streep. I don’t think either Anne Hathaway or Angelina Jolie are taken seriously yet, and I could imagine some resentment toward the profile of the latter.

John

Melissa Leo – Gotta represent for the Homicide alumnni.

Matt

Meryl Streep – I agree with what Bruce said for Best Supporting Actress: SOMEONE from Doubt has to win. I think it will be Streep, though, whose 15th nomination belies the fact that she hasn’t won a trophy in 25 years. Sister Aloysius Beauvier is a lasting character, one who can stick in hearts and minds for years. That’s more than I can say for any of the other nominees, least of all Kate Winslet’s illiterate Nazi. The divided attention/campaigns for Winslet (whose “Revolutionary Road” role was marketed as her Best Actress vehicle) and the possible backlash for The Reader, a junker film that seemed to be made specifically with the purpose of winning Oscars (more on this Friday) and earned many of its nods through Weinstein Company campaigning, makes a long-due third award for Streep an easy choice.

Stephe

Anne Hathaway – This one is simple. I’ve had the hots for Ms. Hathaway for a very, very long time. I watched Princess Diaries at my dentist’s office while getting a cavity fixed and now I can’t ever brush my teeth without thinking of Anne. It sounds creepy, I know, but in my defense:

-She was 18-19 at the time the film was made (I looked it up, both then and now).

-Fantasizing while brushing your teeth is a good way to make sure you get them clean. Today could be the day you actually meet your celebrity crush.

‘Stephe, this is Anne Hathaway.’

‘Nice to meet you, Anne.’

‘Same here, Stephe. Wow, that’s a great smile you’ve got there.’

‘Why thank you, would you like to have some sex with me?’

‘Of course. Healthy gums are a sure sign of sexual prowess…and yours are exquisite.’

‘Thank you, Anne. And just spit that into the sink there when you’re done, would you.’

‘Mmmphghmmoll.’

So give her an Oscar and the number to my hygienist.

Second choice: Meryl Streep for Mama Mia.

Wrestlemania 2000*

Streep = The Big Show:  The name says it all when people casually refer to Meryl as “the greatest living actress” and other variations.

Winslet = Mankind: Capable of putting on many different faces (often in the same night/award season) and entertaining in a versatile manner.

Jolie = Prince Albert: Initially intimidating but largely ineffective and harmless in this situation.

Hathaway = Chris Jericho: The youngest of the group and the one with the longest future ahead of them, needs to avoid distractions (Get Smart; Fozzy/VH1) to recognize potential.

At first, everyone seems to team up on Jolie, sensing a “one of these performances is not like the other” vibe. Eventually, that alliance splits up and Streep takes Angelina to school herself. Meanwhile, some dirty tactics from Hathaway precede a top-rope moonsault and a triple-powerbomb on Winslet, who is shockingly eliminated at 5:02. Hathaway becomes a marked woman immediately, as Streep and Jolie suspend their brawl to take it to the younger nominee. From there, alliances are quickly made and broken. Hathaway and Jolie team up to try and take out Streep, the biggest (literally) threat. Then that breaks down when the pin-up girls can’t stay on the same page. Eventually Streep and Hathaway team up to take out Jolie to no avail. athaway tries to pounce on a weakened Meryl, but Jolie (inexplicably) thwarts the effort. One double-powerbomb later and Jolie is eliminated by Streep at 13:08. The action is back-and forth between the final two. After a small package only gets Hathaway a one-count, she fells Streep with a spinning back kick but gets pinned in the corner. Meryl follows up with a butt bump and a piledriver, recapturing the momentum and dodging two of Hathaway’s patented Lionsaults in the process. Hathaway tries to catch a breather by taking it to the outside, but Meryl Streep gets her back in the ring and applies a simple grounded sleeperhold for the submission victory at 18:01.

Wrestlemania 2000’s selections are made via a four-man elimination match simulation on the Nintendo 64 title. The nominee with the longest odds** does not get represented in the match. For more information on how Wrestlemania 2000 picks the winners, click here. The only change for 2009 involves assigning each nominee a wrestler according to their likelihood of winning per Vegas odds.

Odds are provided by /Film. It bears noting that /Film is by no means a professional oddsmaker, but the figures presented aren’t intended for actual betting.

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